Weather Discussion #2284
A severe threat is expected to continue over the next couple of hours from parts of central Minnesota southwestward into far northeast Nebraska. Hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Latest radar imagery shows a line of strong to severe storms from north-central Minnesota southwestward into western Minnesota. This line segment is located along an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. RAP forecasts within the instability max over western Minnesota early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with some directional shear in the 850 to 700 mb layer. In addition, the RAP suggests 850-500 mb lapse rates are in the 6.5 to 7 C/km range. This environment will support a continued severe risk, with perhaps severe wind gusts and hail possible. However, these threats will probably diminish with time and eastward extent. As the line moves eastward across central Minnesota, isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible along the more intense parts of the line. Further to the southwest, a second line of strong storms is located from far southeastern South Dakota into far northeast Nebraska. In this area, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have about 35 knots of deep-layer shear. However, these storms are located to the south of the stronger large-scale ascent. For this reason, the severe threat associated with these storms is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles/Smith.. 09/12/2026